Cost-benefit assessment of direct sowing of cereals and econometric modeling of the determinants of its adoption in Saïs and Chaouia

Abstract

This study, conducted in collaboration with the UM6P–Al Moutmir initiative (OCP-Group), assessed the economic and agronomic performance of direct seeding compared to conventional seeding for the main cereal crops (soft wheat, durum wheat, barley) in the Saïs and Chaouia regions of Morocco during the 2022/2023 growing season. The analysis is based on a survey conducted in May 2024 among 120 cereal farms. The results show that direct seeding leads to an average improvement in yields (+6.6 quintals/ha), a reduction in seed consumption (–58 kg/ha), and a decrease in production costs (–20.3% in Saïs; –11.1% in Chaouia). Net margins have increased significantly (+169% in Saïs; +55.5% in Chaouia). Moreover, direct seeding reduces mechanization requirements (–25.4% in Saïs; –21.0% in Chaouia) and labor time (–8.3 h/ha and –6.0 h/ha, respectively). However, this technique results in higher herbicide costs (+77.7% in Saïs; +48.0% in Chaouia) and fertilization costs (+14.5% in Saïs; +46.1% in Chaouia). The econometric analysis highlights the influence of several determining factors on farmers' adoption of direct seeding. Each additional level of training of the farmers surveyed is associated with a 6.4% increase in the probability of adoption, highlighting the central role of training in the adoption of innovations. Similarly, farmers who are members of a professional organization have a 27.5% higher probability of adoption than those who are not affiliated, illustrating the importance of collective networks in the dissemination of soil conservation practices. Furthermore, the length of time they have been exposed to the technique is a significant factor: each additional five years since learning about direct seeding increases the probability of adoption by 17.1%. Finally, access to agricultural extension plays a decisive role, as farmers who benefit from this service have a 26.3% higher probability of adoption than those who do not. In conclusion, no-till seeding constitutes an economically profitable and technically viable alternative, despite certain additional costs, and its adoption depends heavily on socioeconomic and institutional factors.

Keywords: No-till seeding, Production costs, Net margins, Adoption determinants, Climate change, Saïs, Chaouia, Morocco